ETSI recommends hybrid forecasting arrangement to New Zealand’s Electricity Authority

The ETSI team recently made a public submission to the New Zealand Electricity Authority Te Mana Hiko, recommending that the authority adopt a hybrid approach during their ongoing review of intermittent generation forecasting.

ETSI’s position is based on their expeirence in the Australian market, and advocated for the unique advantages this model brings in addressing the challenges of increasing renewable penetration:

1. Improved Forecast Accuracy

Wind farm operators and specialist forecast providers, with access to appropriate data and deep local knowledge of their assets, are best placed to deliver accurate and reliable generation forecasts. A hybrid model encourages competition and innovation among forecast providers, with market incentives driving continual improvement. This directly contributes to better system security.

2. Enhanced Situational Awareness

Under a hybrid model, the system operator would benefit from both:

• Centralised forecasts, developed with consistent system-wide inputs, and

• Decentralised forecasts, produced by operators or third-party providers.

Combining and comparing these perspectives provides greater insight into forecast uncertainty and system adequacy. This dual-input approach increases the operator’s situational awareness and strengthens overall system security.

3. Operational Flexibility and Resilience

While overarching governance can be codified, the system operator retains responsibility for setting incentives and standards (through industry consultation). This flexibility allows the operator to adapt requirements over time, ensuring that forecasts remain aligned with operational needs. It also builds resilience into the forecasting framework by embedding continuous improvement and competition as core features.

ETSI’s public submission can be found here.